Mar 4: Document created
(initial build — full document)
This Week's Headlines
- Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Tehran about ending the war. Iran's parliament speaker and foreign ministry denied any negotiations, calling Trump's move an attempt to lower energy prices and buy time.
- Oil whipsawed: Brent surged above $114 Monday morning on continued war fears, then crashed more than 7% to ~$104 after Trump's announcement. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $110 for March-April and warned prices could exceed the 2008 record ($147) if Hormuz remains shut.
- Markets surged on de-escalation hopes: S&P 500 up ~2.2%, Dow up ~2.3%, Russell 2000 up ~3%. Asian markets had their worst day in nearly a year overnight before the rally.
- Gas hit $3.96 AAA (Mar 23), the 23rd straight daily increase, highest since August 2022. Up 36% from pre-war $2.92.
- IEA head Fatih Birol: the crisis is "worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined" and represents a "major, major threat" to the global economy. More than 40 Middle East energy assets "severely damaged."
- Despite the talks claim, "unprecedented" Israeli strikes on Tehran continued. Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Dimona casualty toll rose to 180+. Iran's 337th attack wave on Israel. UAE: 352 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,789 UAVs intercepted since war began.
- DHS shutdown Day 37: ICE agents deployed to 14 airports Monday. Record 11.5% single-day callout rate Saturday. 366 TSA officers quit. Hours-long lines at JFK, O'Hare, Atlanta, Philadelphia.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.0 to D+5.6 |
| Generic Ballot (Emerson, T1, LV) | D+8 |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -15.3 (Mar 19) |
| Trump Approval (range, 7 firms) | 36-46% approve / 52-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval (Marist T1) | 35% approve / 58% disapprove (Quinnipiac) |
| Iran War Approval (Marist T1 / Quinnipiac T2) | 36-38% approve handling; 56% oppose action |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich prelim.) | 55.5 (Mar); expectations 54.1 |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.96/gal (Mar 23) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | ~$104/barrel (Mar 23, post-crash) |
| Diesel (AAA avg.) | $5.07/gal (Mar 18) |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 13 KIA + 2 non-combat; ~200 wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 25% (up from 20%, Mar 12) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Avg. Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts (96 races); 9 seat flips (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 37 (since Feb 14) |
Technical Changelog
Document created. Baseline analysis of all competitive Senate, House, governor, and state legislative races. Five scenarios with probability estimates. Polling methodology established. 69 citations.