Mar 19: Spot update
SOURCESPART IDashboardChangelogThe Forces Shaping 2026
This Week's Headlines
- Iran war Day 20: Israel struck South Pars gas field (shared with Qatar), Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan LNG terminal, Saudi refineries, and UAE. Brent hit $119 intraday, highest of the conflict. Qatar expelled Iranian military diplomats. Saudi Arabia warned of "military actions." Trump threatened to destroy South Pars if Iran hits Qatar again.
- Pentagon requests $200B in supplemental war funding. Hegseth: "It takes money to kill bad guys." Hegseth announced "largest strike package yet" against Iran.
- Silver Bulletin Trump approval hits new model low: net -15.3 (was -13.9 on Mar 16, -13.5 at start of month). First meaningful erosion since war began.
- Joe Kent (former counterterrorism chief) resignation triggers FBI leak investigation. Kent told Carlson: "no intelligence" of imminent Iran threat, "the Israelis drove the decision." Gabbard accused of altering Senate testimony on Iran.
- Gas hits $3.884/gal AAA (Mar 19), up 28 cents in one week. Pre-war: $2.92. Markets: Dow -768 on Fed day (Mar 18); S&P 500 below 200-day MA; Russell 2000 nearing correction territory.
- Maine primary intensifies: Mills launches first negative ad targeting Platner's Reddit posts. EMILY's List signals imminent intervention. CBS: race growing "increasingly bitter" with 12 weeks to June 9.
- Ohio Senate poll: OnMessage (GOP firm, Mar 3-8, 600 LV): Brown 47%, Husted 45% — first 2026 poll with Brown ahead (within MOE). Healthcare costs top voter concern.
- ECB holds rates citing Iran war uncertainty, joining Fed in flagging energy shock as a monetary policy constraint.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.4-5.6 |
| Generic Ballot (Emerson, T1, LV) | D+8 |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -15.3 (Mar 19) |
| Trump Approval (range, 7 firms) | 36-46% approve / 52-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval (Marist T1) | 35% approve / 58% disapprove (Quinnipiac) |
| Iran War Approval (Marist T1 / Quinnipiac T2) | 36-38% approve handling; 56% oppose action |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich prelim.) | 55.5 (Mar); expectations 54.1 |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.884/gal (Mar 19) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | $113.71/barrel AM (Mar 19); hit $119 intraday |
| Diesel (AAA avg.) | $5.07/gal (Mar 18) |
| US KIA (Iran war) | 13 (+ 6 non-hostile KC-135 crash); ~200 wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 25% (up from 20%, Mar 12) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Avg. Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts (96 races); 9 seat flips (R flips: 0) |
Technical Changelog
Spot update. Iran war Day 20 escalation: Israel struck South Pars gas field, Iran retaliated against Qatar Ras Laffan, Saudi, UAE energy infrastructure. Oil hit $119 intraday ($113.71 AM), gas $3.884 AAA. Pentagon requested $200B supplemental. Kent resignation triggered FBI leak probe. Silver Bulletin approval hit new model low net -15.3. Dow -768 on Fed day, S&P below 200-day MA. Maine primary intensifies (Mills negative ad, EMILY's List). Ohio poll: Brown 47, Husted 45 (OnMessage, first 2026 poll with Brown ahead). ECB held rates citing Iran uncertainty. 4 new citations (150-153).