Mar 28: Iran war
This Week's Headlines
- Houthis enter the war. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched ballistic missiles at southern Israel on Saturday, their first attack since the conflict began one month ago. The IDF intercepted both the initial ballistic missile and a follow-up cruise missile, with sirens sounding around Beersheba near Israel's Dimona nuclear research center. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said strikes "will continue until the declared objectives are achieved." The Houthis had stayed on the sidelines despite the first four weeks of fighting, constrained by their uneasy ceasefire with Saudi Arabia. Their entry raises the threat of a second maritime chokepoint: if the Houthis resume attacks on Red Sea shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb strait alongside the existing Hormuz closure, two of the world's critical trade corridors would be shut simultaneously. Analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned this "could roil energy markets even more."
- Iran struck a US air base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 12-15 troops. Iran fired 6 ballistic missiles and 29 drones at Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh on Friday. At least 12-15 US service members were wounded (reports vary), with at least 5 in serious condition. A KC-135 refueling aircraft was hit and caught fire; Iran released Chinese satellite imagery showing burning planes. This is the most significant direct attack on US forces since the war began. More than two dozen US troops have been wounded at the base in attacks over the past week alone. Total US wounded now exceeds 315.
- 3,500 Marines arrived in the Middle East. US Central Command confirmed the USS Tripoli, carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, has arrived in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. MEUs are traditionally used for amphibious operations including raids and ship-to-shore assaults. Speculation is mounting about potential operations at Iran's Kharg Island oil-export facility. The 82nd Airborne is also deploying.
- Markets closed at seven-month lows. The Dow fell 793 points (-1.73%) to 45,167 and entered correction territory. The S&P 500 lost 1.67% to 6,369, its fifth straight weekly loss and lowest close in seven months. The Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 20,948, now 13% below its October high. The VIX topped 31. All three indices are below their 200-day moving averages. March is on pace to be the worst month for equities since December 2022.
- DHS shutdown Day 43, heading into recess with no resolution. The House passed a 60-day full-DHS continuing resolution 213-203 Friday night, with 3 Democrats crossing over. Speaker Johnson called the Senate's overnight DHS-minus-ICE bill "a joke." Senate Democrats call the House version "dead on arrival." Both chambers are now in two-week recess with no path to resolution visible. Trump signed an executive order directing DHS Secretary Mullin to pay TSA officers; paychecks could arrive as early as Monday. 510 TSA officers have quit since February 14. TSA workers have missed more than $1 billion in pay.
- Rubio says war will end "in weeks." Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the US expects to complete its Iran war objectives "in the next couple weeks." This contradicts the continuing escalation, including the Houthi entry, the Prince Sultan base attack, and Israel's announcement that it would "escalate and expand" strikes. The US military says about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal has been destroyed.
- Iran agreed to humanitarian corridor through Hormuz. Iran's UN ambassador in Geneva said Tehran accepted a UN request to facilitate humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the Strait, the first modest diplomatic opening at the chokepoint. Separately, Iran has begun operating a yuan-based "toll booth" system at Hormuz, allowing Chinese, Russian, and allied vessels to transit while collecting fees in yuan.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.1 |
| Generic Ballot (latest polls) | D+6 (SIN/Verasight RV) / D+7 (Emerson T1 LV) |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -16.7 |
| Trump Approval (range, 10+ firms) | 36-42% approve / 51-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | 25% cost of living, 29% economy (Reuters/Ipsos) |
| Iran War Approval | 61% disapprove (Pew, 3,524 adults, MOE 1.8) |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich final Mar) | 53.3 (revised from 55.5 prelim) |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.98/gal (Mar 28) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | Closed $112.57 Fri (+4.22%); Sat midday ~$104 |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 13 KIA + 2 non-combat; 315+ wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 25% (up from 20%, Mar 12) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts avg (96+ races); Dems flipped 29 seats (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 43 (since Feb 14) |
What Changed
- Iran war
- Day 29 (one month): Houthis enter war with ballistic missile strikes on Israel, threatening second maritime chokepoint. Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base (12-15 US wounded, KC-135 destroyed). USS Tripoli with 3,500 Marines arrived.
- Dashboard
- Markets closed sharply lower: S&P 6,369 (-1.67%), Dow 45,167 in correction, Nasdaq 20,948. Oil closed $112.57 Brent. DHS Day 43: House passed 60-day CR, Senate calls it dead on arrival, both chambers in recess.